1.The outcome of the Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election next month is likely to depend greatly on the votes of rank-and-file party members and members of affiliated groups, votes that tend to reflect public opinion.
2.In the latest Yomiuri Shimbun survey, former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba, 67, and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 43, were the two top picks as the most suitable candidate to be the next LDP president. The survey results are likely to affect the strategies of all the candidates and possible candidates.
Ishiba wary of Koizumi
3.Ishiba was the most suitable choice for 22% — the largest proportion of respondents — in the most recent poll. “I’ve been touting the need for reform in the various fields that I’ve worked on, and I believe I’ve received a certain amount of support for that,” Ishiba was quoted as saying to people close to him on Sunday, in response to the poll results.
4.“There’s still a long way to go. Mr. Koizumi hasn’t announced his intention [to run in the race] either,” Ishiba added, expressing caution about Koizumi’s growing momentum. The former environment minister came in second with 20%, up 5 percentage points from the previous survey.
5.Koizumi plans to announce his candidacy on Friday. “The fact that he garnered this high figure before he announced his candidacy indicates there are great expectations of him,” said an LDP member who served in a Cabinet post and is working to support Koizumi.
6.Koizumi’s only Cabinet post so far has been environment minister, leaving concern that his high profile is not matched by his experience. However, people close to Koizumi stressed that in order to change itself, the LDP needs to break away from the conventional career path of becoming president and prime minister after serving as a key Cabinet member or in one of the four main party leadership positions.
Struggling to be known
7.Economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, 63, demonstrated her presence by coming in third with 10%. She is believed to have become more widely known nationwide as a result of her candidacy in the previous presidential election in 2021.
8.Among those with extensive experience in key positions, digital minister Taro Kono, 61, came in fourth. However, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, 63; LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi, 68; and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato, 68, have struggled to become better known among the public.
9.Former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi, 49, who some hope will bring a sense of renewal to the party, has also struggled to boost his visibility. Counting the three people who have already announced their candidacies, and the lawmakers believed to have secured nominations from 20 LDP lawmakers, a total of seven people will likely run for office. There is also the possibility others will join in.
