Warm up
—- ** FOR NEW STUDENTS ** —————————————- ———–
- What industry do you work in and what is your role?
- What are your responses in your role / position?
- Can you describe to the function of your workplace / company?
- How many departments, how many offices. National or International?
- What is the Minimum requirements for employment ie Education or Experience?
- How many opportunities are there to ‘move up the ladder’?
- What is the process for changing job roles ie Interview? Test?
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General discussion about your workweek:
- Current projects? Deadlines? Opportunities?
- Anything of interest happening?
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https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-10/trade-talks-to-start-and-the-best-outcome-is-likely-to-be-thing/11587304?section=business
Script
1. For anyone who’s lost count, the meeting of high ranking US and Chinese trade officials that is due to start later today in Washington is round 13.
Even the most superstitious triskaidekaphobia sufferer would probably be a bit blasé about it though — nothing short of all out conventional, or even nuclear war between the world’s two biggest economies could deliver a much worse outcome than the previous 12 meetings.
2. Pinning down the start of the so-called trade war is tricky, but the April 2017 order from US President Donald Trump for the US Trade Representative to investigate whether imports of steel and aluminium posed a threat to national security is as good a place as any.
By February 2018 a few seemingly innocuous-looking 30 per cent tariffs were slapped on odds and sods like solar panels and washing machines.
3. A month later, those $US10 billion worth of tariffs, became a 25 per cent tariff on US steel imports and a 10 per cent tariff on aluminium.
Fast forward 18 months and the tariff walls are massive. The US has applied heavy taxes to around $US550 billion worth of Chinese goods and China has responded with tariffs on $US185 billion of US produce.
That’s $US735 billion combined, or more than $1 trillion. Pretty soon they will be talking serious money.
4. There was a bit of optimism several weeks ago, but it’s been pretty well snuffed out in recent days.
On the negative side:
- The US imposed visa restrictions on Chinese officials over the treatment of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang
- China fired back it violated basic norms of international relations, undermined its interests and imposed visa restrictions of its own
- The US added another batch of Chinese companies and public bureaux to its trade blacklist over the same issue
- China tweeted back a demand for the US to stop interfering in its “internal affairs”
- A tweet from a National Basketball Association executive in support of Hong Kong protestors became a diplomatic incident
- China pulls the plug on (inconsequential) pre-season NBA games … and so it goes
5. On the positive side:
- The talks haven’t been cancelled
- Reports China planned to pull out early have been denied
- Reports emerged on the eve of talks that China will offer to buy more US farm produce
One of the Chinese Communist Party’s official media arms, the daily tabloid the Global Times, stressed the delegation led by Vice-Premier Liu He and senior comrades from economic, agricultural and communication ministries would be striving for a result.
6. The breadth of the result wasn’t mentioned, but the trade rumour-mill has China aiming at a fairly narrow target, not the sweeping agreement on industrial subsidies and intellectual property rights the US has in mind.
“A number of Chinese senior officials will sit at the trade table with the US this time,” Gao Lingyun, an expert on such matters from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times.
“It demonstrates two things: China is showing a high level of sincerity to the US. And, China has certain expectations of the US,” he said.
7. Up ahead, should things end rancorously, are the next batch of tariffs timed to start on October 15.
The escalation of $US250 billion in imports from a 25 per cent to 30 per cent tax was originally planned for the start of the month, but was delayed by two weeks as a gesture of goodwill before the Washington talks and to avoid crashing the 70th birthday party of the People’s Republic of China.
The 30 per cent figure is nothing special, just another negotiating point on the way to a 50 per cent tax allowed under the 1930 Tariff Act. Even further down the track, in mid-December the US has lined up the second tranche of the $US300 billion tariff list — are you keeping up with this? That is intended to whack a 15 per cent tax on much more sensitive consumer/voter goods; mobile phones, laptops, toys as well as automotive parts.
8. This could get tricky. It may be the move that alerts US consumers to the fact that they are paying the tax on imports that is making Chinese goods more expensive and thus crippling Chinese industry, rather than the Chinese paying the tax, as inferred by the President.
China also has another smaller batch of tariffs it has up its sleeve, but by that stage they will be imposed it will barely matter anymore.
9. So where do we stand?
The big fund manager BlackRock probably has it about right.
“We see some possibility of a truce, but a comprehensive trade deal remains unlikely,” BlackRock told its clients.
The big US investment bank, Citi, is equally dubious.
“Although a limited agreement consisting of purchases of US agricultural goods in exchange of easing restrictions on Huawei could be achieved, this would only be a framework for further negotiations but would not constitute the trade deal that the US administration has in mind,” Citi told its clients
In other words, the Washington talks will be just another small stepping stone on the way to the 14th meeting and beyond.
Discussion
1. In what ways have these sanctions affected your workplace/ personal life?
2. What measures has your workplace or yourself taken to mitigate these affects.
3. How is this situation reported in the media? is there an obvious bias?
Keywords
- round 13 = insinuating its like a competitive sport
- superstitious = 迷信的な / Meishin-tekina
- triskaidekaphobia = fear of the number 13
- blasé = unimpressed with or indifferent to something because one has experienced or seen it so often before.
- nothing short of = almost (or equal to)
- Pinning down = Difficult to pin down (situation) = find the reason for
- tricky = requiring care and skill because difficult or awkward.
- posed a threat = to present a difficult or dangerous situation
- Pose a …. problem, question, challenge, risk
- seemingly innocuous = not harmful or offensive.
- odds and sods = different kinds of things that are usually small and unimportant.
- snuffed out = suppress, finish, kill
- undermined = lessen the effectiveness, power, or ability of, especially with bad intentions
- bureaux = a government department (intelligence bureau) / an office or department for transacting particular business (news bureau)
- interfering = prevent (a process or activity) from continuing or being carried out properly.
- diplomatic incident = An international incident is a seemingly relatively small or limited action or clash that results in a wider dispute between two or more nation-states
- pulls the plug on = stop, end, halt, abandon, abort = prevent something from happening or continuing.
- inconsequential = not important or significant, of no or little consequence
- pull out early = leave, abandon, end prematurely
- eve = the day or period of time immediately before an event or occasion.
- tabloid = newspaper / often lurid and sensational.
- stressed = give particular emphasis or importance to (a point, statement, or idea) made in speech or writing.
- comrades = military term used for a fellow socialist or communist (often as a form of address).
- breadth / width
- rumour-mill = used to refer to the process by which rumours and gossip are originated and circulated among a group of people.
- [responsivevoice voice = "US English Female" buttontext = ""]sweeping = wide in range or effect.
- rancorously = characterized by bitterness or resentment.
- gesture of goodwill = to show you want to cooperate/apologize or be friendly and helpful
- tranche = a portion of something, especially money.
- are you keeping up with this? = can you still understand (implying its difficult or there is too much information)
- whack = to hit something, or a large amount of something
- sensitive = easily offended or upset
- alerts US consumers = notifies/informs
- thus crippling = therefore damaging seriously
- inferred = conclude (something) from evidence and reasoning rather than from explicit statements.
- up its sleeve = (a strategy, idea, or resource) kept secret and in reserve for use when needed.
- where do we stand? = Be aware of one’s position relative to others, or how one is regarded by others
- truce = an agreement between enemies or opponents to stop fighting or arguing for a certain time.
- dubious = doubtful, distrusting
- constitute = combine to form a whole. parts/ pieces constitute the whole
- and beyond = further, deeper, more extensive, longer, above or greater
